There is one number in the local market reports that almost nobody outside the business notices, and it might be the most useful one for anyone about to write an offer or set a price. Across the Miami Valley, homes have been selling at an average of 100 percent of list price, month after month, for a long stretch now. Clients ask Irongate Inc., REALTORS® agents whether they should come in under asking, and that single figure is where the honest answer starts. It is not a rule about what you must pay. It is a description of what has actually been happening, and it tells you a great deal about how this market works.

The Sale to List Ratio Measures the Gap Between Asking and Closing

The ratio is simple arithmetic. Take what a home closed for, divide it by what it was listed for, and you get a percentage. Ninety five percent means buyers negotiated the price down. One hundred and three percent means competing offers pushed it up. One hundred percent means the average home closed for right about what the seller asked.

Through July 2026, the Dayton REALTORS® Multiple Listing Service reported that ratio at 100 percent both for the month and for the year to date. That has been remarkably steady. The median sale price for July came in at $275,000, up 1.85 percent from $270,000 a year earlier, and the year to date median reached $264,900, up 3.88 percent.

One important caveat about averages. A 100 percent average does not mean every home sold at asking. It means the ones that sold above asking and the ones that sold below balanced out. Well priced homes in Centerville and Beavercreek routinely draw multiple offers and close over list, while overpriced homes cut their price twice and eventually close well under the original number. Both outcomes hide inside that clean average.

Sellers Are Getting Their Price Because Supply Is Still Tight

The reason the ratio holds up is inventory. At the end of July there were 2,817 single family homes and condominiums available across the MLS. That is a real increase from 2,357 a year earlier, and new listings are running 6.7 percent ahead of last year with 11,480 added through July. Even so, the available supply works out to roughly 1.8 months based on July's rate of sales.

A balanced market generally runs somewhere between five and six months of supply. At 1.8 months, sellers still hold most of the leverage. Sales are up 5.85 percent year over year with 1,537 closings in July, so demand has not softened. Buyers are simply competing for a slightly larger pool of homes than they were a year ago.

That is the honest picture. Conditions are easing at the margin without flipping. If you have been waiting for a market where sellers accept lowball offers as a matter of course, this is not that market, and calling it one would not help you.

Lowball Offers Usually Cost Buyers the House, Not the Money

Here is the practical consequence for buyers. When the average home sells at its asking price, an offer well below list has a low probability of working, and the cost of failure is not zero. You lose the house, and in a market with a 1.8 month supply you may wait weeks for another one you like as much.

That does not mean asking price is always the right number. It means the case for less has to come from the property itself. A home that has been sitting for sixty days while comparable listings nearby sell in two weeks is telling you something. So is a listing priced above what recent sales in the same area support, or one with a significant repair issue documented by an inspector. Those are arguments a listing agent can take to a seller.

Terms carry real weight too, and buyers underuse them. A flexible closing date, a shorter inspection window, a solid preapproval from a lender the listing agent recognizes, and a willingness to let the seller stay a few extra days after closing can all make a competitive offer stronger without raising the price. Some sellers care more about certainty and timing than about the last two thousand dollars.

For Sellers, the Ratio Is an Argument Against Overpricing

Sellers tend to read a 100 percent sale to list ratio as permission to reach. The logic feels sound. If homes sell for their asking price, ask for more.

It does not work that way, and the reason is the appraisal and the algorithm. Buyers who need financing are limited by what an appraiser can support with recent comparable sales in Kettering, Englewood, or Washington Township. Beyond that, listings that go stale lose visibility on the search portals where nearly every buyer starts, and a price reduction resets a listing in a buyer's mind as a house with a problem.

The pattern local agents see repeatedly is that a home priced correctly from day one draws its strongest activity in the first two weeks, sometimes with competing offers, and closes at or above asking. A home priced ten percent high sits, reduces, sits again, and finally closes below what it would have brought if it had been priced right in the first place. Same house. Different outcome, and usually a longer road to get there.

The Right Number Comes From the Street, Not the Region

Regional statistics set context, and then local reality takes over. The 2025 community numbers make that obvious. Springboro and Clearcreek Township averaged $552,534 for the year, Beavercreek averaged $390,279, Kettering averaged $263,658, and Huber Heights averaged $237,883. Those are different markets with different buyer pools and different price sensitivity, all inside the same MLS report.

Even within one community, the useful comparison set is narrow. Recent sales of similar square footage, similar condition, similar lot, and similar era of construction, ideally within a mile. That is the analysis that produces a defensible number, whether you are the one setting the price or the one deciding what to offer.

Bring the Numbers to Someone Who Watches Them Every Week

Market data is only worth what you can do with it. The value of the 100 percent figure is not that it tells you what to pay, it is that it tells you the strategy of coming in low and expecting to negotiate up has a poor track record here right now.

If you are getting ready to write an offer this fall or thinking about what to list for, reach out to an Irongate Inc., REALTORS® agent. We will pull the comparable sales for your specific street, look at how long homes like yours are actually taking to sell, and build a number you can stand behind.

Irongate Inc., REALTORS® has been a locally owned Miami Valley powerhouse for more than 50 years, with offices across the region. Our agents are rooted in the communities they serve.

Sources: Dayton REALTORS® Multiple Listing Service, July 2026 Housing Data and 2025 Yearly Sales by Community, daytonrealtors.org/housing-data/